Trust Scores for Prediction Market Probabilities.
Quantify how reliable each Polymarket probability actually is.
A production-grade system that assesses prediction market reliability through calibration analysis, statistical scoring, and Time Series Foundation Model inference — with safeguards for rate-limiting, caching, and circuit breakers.
The agent quantifies market signal reliability through four core statistical metrics — turning abstract probabilities into trustworthy, auditable Trust Scores.
Integrates REST APIs, WebSocket feeds, and subgraph queries from Polymarket to maintain a real-time, unified view of market data.
Computes Brier score, log-loss, and Expected Calibration Error per market — generating composite Trust Scores with postmortem-ready audit trails.
YAML-defined alert rules trigger on probability deviation thresholds. Alert feeds are exposed as read-only API endpoints for downstream consumers.
Integrates Time Series Foundation Model inference with production-grade safeguards: rate-limiting, response caching, and circuit breakers to prevent cascade failures.
Real-time monitoring dashboard showing market summaries, Trust Score distributions, active alerts, and calibration postmortems — designed for ops and quant teams.
Exposes market summaries, alert feeds, and performance postmortems as structured, read-only API endpoints. No write operations — safe for research and risk workflows.
Fully configurable via YAML — alert thresholds, model settings, API targets, and caching behavior are all declared without code changes.
Cleanly separated connectors, calibration pipelines, and API handlers. Add new market sources or scoring metrics without touching core logic.
Built with uv as package manager with a frozen lockfile for reproducible installs. Python 95%+ of the codebase.
Use calibration metrics and TSFM signals to evaluate prediction market quality before incorporating them into models or strategies.
Monitor real-time alert feeds and Trust Score distributions to catch signal degradation before it affects downstream decisions.
Integrate the read-only API endpoints into existing risk pipelines, dashboards, or agent workflows with minimal configuration.
Access structured postmortem data and calibration history to evaluate how prediction markets perform across different market regimes.
Production-ready for quantitative research and risk workflows.